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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.